Abstract

This study examined the predictive validity of the National Examinations Council Basic Education Certificate Examination (NECO-BECE) on students’ performance in NECO Senior School Certificate Examination (SSCE) Mathematics in Ebonyi State, Nigeria, and tested whether gender moderated that predictive relationship. A longitudinal correlational design was adopted. The population comprised 481 students (244 males and 237 females) of Federal Science and Technical College, Amuzu, who sat for BECE in 2020, 2021 and 2022 and for SSCE in 2023, 2024 and 2025 respectively. Complete and matchable records were retrieved for 458 students (233 males and 225 females), a retrieval rate of 95.2%. Official grades obtained from NECO headquarters, Minna, were converted to grade-band midpoint scores. Pearson’s product moment correlation, the coefficient of determination, simple linear regression, Fisher’s r-to-z test and moderated hierarchical regression were used at the 0.05 level of significance. BECE Mathematics correlated highly and positively with SSCE Mathematics (r = .62, r² = .384), and the relationship was significant, t(456) = 16.87, p < .001. The coefficient remained stable across the three cohorts (r = .58 to .64). Prediction was stronger for males (r = .66) than for females (r = .57); however, the difference was not significant (z = 1.54, p = .123), and the BECE by gender interaction added only 0.3% of explained variance, F(1, 454) = 2.24, p = .135. BECE Mathematics therefore functions as a valid and gender-fair early indicator of SSCE Mathematics performance, although about 62% of the variance in SSCE scores lies outside what BECE captures. Early diagnostic use of BECE results in the first year of senior secondary school is warranted