Abstract

Since 1978, China has converted rapid economic growth into significant global influence through export sophistication, special economic zones, and state-directed capital allocation, extended abroad chiefly through the Belt and Road Initiative. This study examines what, if anything is transferable from that trajectory to Nigeria, Africa's largest economy and an increasingly significant China partner, with bilateral trade surpassing $22 billion in 2025. Using a qualitative comparative case study design and a developmental-state analytical framework, the study reviews recent literature on China's growth mechanisms and Nigeria's structural development constraints — oil dependence, infrastructure deficits, fiscal pressure, and an underutilized youth population, before assessing their interaction directly through Nigerian case evidence, including the Lekki Free Trade Zone and recent Chinese-financed industrial and clean-energy projects. The analysis finds that Nigeria is capable of absorbing the physical, financial, and technological outputs of China's model considerably faster than it can build the institutional preconditions, sustained bureaucratic coordination, policy continuity, and transparent long-horizon capital allocation that made those outputs effective in China itself. This institutional gap, rather than a shortage of capital or infrastructure, is identified as the binding constraint on whether Nigeria's engagement with China produces durable development or a longer cycle of debt-financed dependency. The study concludes with policy recommendations addressing SEZ legislative reform, debt-conscious co-financing, transparency in foreign-financed agreements, and sequencing of skills investment ahead of industrial expansion, directly relevant to Nigeria's newly launched Industrial Policy 2025